Business And Personal Finance

The French Economic Observatory forecasts growth of 0.8% in France in 2012. Pink is the scenario. The black scenario, if the rigor is increasing: a decline in GDP of 0.5%. View the Ministry of Economy and Finance at Bercy.

Three years after the start of the global crisis, the potential for economic recovery of France will be constrained by budgetary savings plans in the country and its European partners, provides for the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). Research Center of Sciences-Po expects growth of 1.6% in 2011 and 0.8% in 2012, while the government expects 1.75% per year.

"This performance is particulièrment poor and far from the normal path of an economy in crisis," said the OFCE in a study released Friday.The rebound potential perceived by the OFCE correspond to a growth rate of 3.8% per annum in 2011 and 2012, which would make up for five years after the crisis began accumulating the output gap. France, then regain its unemployment rate in 2007.

But two external shocks will affect such a scenario. The first, soaring commodity prices, will result in a resurgence of inflation in France and limit spending. It will cause a slowdown in its trading partners, reducing their demand for French products. This shock will reduce growth by 1.3 percentage points over the period 2011-2012. The second shock is linked to policies of fiscal restraint led by European countries.

A recession is not excluded

"In trying to reduce their deficits early, too quickly and synchronously, the governments of European countries run the risk of a new downturn," said the OFCE. The unemployment rate in France is expected to increase steadily to 9.3% and 9.7% end 2011 end 2012, according to the institute. "The low cost of capital discourages businesses not yet set up costly and risky projects", the study also points out, "the investment should not be in 2011 and 2012 an efficient link to make permanent the rebound in growth. "

The OFCE is also considering "a darker scenario" if the government would take "whatever the cost to meet its budget commitments' (deficit down to 4.5% of GDP in 2012 and 3% in 2013), with a decline of 0.5% of GDP in 2012.If the other major European countries were to adopt the same strategy, the activity would fall by 1.7% and unemployment was close 11%, according to the OFCE.

The budget deficit widened further in Greece in September due to a recession driven by austerity measures, in spite of new tax measures that were supposed to increase revenue.

The budget deficit increased by 15% annually, to 19.16 billion euros over the period from January to September, show statistics from the Ministry of Finance released Wednesday.

In September, Athens increased VAT on catering to 23% and began collecting a special tax of 1% to 5% on gross revenues.

However, tax revenues fell by 4.2% over the nine months January to September, after falling 5.3% over a period of eight months.

International air traffic has slowed in August compared to July, posting a 1.6% decline in passenger traffic and a decline of 1.3% of freight from one month to another, said Monday the 'International Air Transport Association (Iata).

Although passenger traffic has increased by 4.5% year on year in August, this trend remains below the 6.1% growth registered so far for 2011.

Air freight has declined in August by 3.8% year on year and increased by only 0.2% since the beginning of the year.

"With business confidence and consumer continues to deteriorate globally, there is not much optimism for an improvement next conditions (sector)," said the Director General of IATA, Tony Tyler.

IATA represents 230 airlines and 93% of global air traffic.

Wall Street opened down sharply Thursday, continuing its decline started the day after the grim diagnosis of the Federal Reserve on the U.S. economy, plus a further contraction in activity in the eurozone and in China revives fears a second global recession in four years.

In early trade, the Dow Jones lost 2.6% (292 points) at 10,832 points.The Standard & Poor's, wider, yielding 2.42% (28 points) to 1138 points, while the Nasdaq composite fell by 2.5% (63 points) to 2474 points.

After ten minutes of trading, the Dow's losses widened and lost 3%.

The weekly jobless claims declined in the United States during the week to Sept. 17, at 423,000 against 432,000 the previous week, but they emerged above the consensus (420 000), which does not appease the spirits.

The Fed on Wednesday raised "significant downside risks" on the economy of the United States, before announcing an "Operation Twist" 400 billion dollars to bring down long rates, and support activity.

But Wall Street estimates that only 15% chance that the "Operation Twist" gives a real boost to the U.S. economy, according to a Reuters poll of primary dealers of Treasury.

Fears of a relapse of the global economy have intensified Thursday with the contraction in private sector activity observed in the eurozone and China.

The banking sector also sensitive to economic conditions, still suffers from the decision of Moody's downgrade of Bank of America (-4.4%), Wells Fargo (-2.7%) and Citigroup (-3.9%) on the ground the U.S. federal government may be reluctant to rush to the aid of large banking institutions in difficulty.

United Technologies lost 6.6% after announcing the acquisition of the aerospace supplier Goodrich, whose work jumped 9.8%, an operation that would be the largest acquisition of U.S. industrial giant in 10 years.

Manchester United football club's most successful in England, received the green light from the Singapore Stock Exchange for an IPO representing one billion dollars (722 million), told Reuters two sources familiar with the operation.

With the amount so raised, the club held by the U.S. Glazer family since 2005, wants to reduce a debt of nearly $ 500 million, the cost has weighed on its books in recent years.

Of 2009-2010, Manchester United has posted a record operating profit of 101 million pounds (115 million), but the level of net income, the loss was 84 million pounds due to the cost of debt.

By choosing a listing in Asia, the club hopes to increase the already very important, its supporters in the region.

Of the 330 million Manchester United fans worldwide, two thirds live in Asia.

By drawing a name as famous as that of Manchester United, Premier League title, the Singapore Exchange makes a killing in the race for IPOs brought to Hong Kong.

This leads, however, because the ball has become a destination for major international brands such as luxury goods group Prada and cosmetics manufacturer L'Occitane.

Preference Shares

The placing on the market including Manchester United should be made through the issuance of preference shares do not offer voting rights to the Glazer family does not lose control of the club, the sources said.

The choice of preference shares, which are attached a higher dividend than ordinary shares, has been criticized by investors as well as fans, they have always denied the presence of the Glazer family to head the club.

The Glazer, the club also own the Tampa Bay Buccaneers American football in the U.S., are accused by supporters to have high debt Manchester United in their takeover of the club, thus limiting its ability to recruit players.

Drasdo Duncan, general manager of "trust" supporters of Manchester United, told Reuters that the degree of control of a majority shareholder was likely to be a source of concern for minority investors seeking a return on acceptable investment.

Experts in corporate governance have criticized the Singapore Stock Exchange for allowing a form of IPO minimizing the influence of new shareholders.

Manchester United spent the last week to tour the major Asian institutional investors, including sovereign wealth fund Temasek in Singapore, according to sources.

The media group News Corp. and movie has awarded its CEO Rupert Murdoch and son James of large increases in wages, but James said Friday waive his bonus, highlighting the controversy the illegal wiretapping of British tabloid News of the World.

The annual premium, announced Friday, would have increased the compensation of James Murdoch to 73%. His father, aged 80, received a 47% increase, bringing its total earnings to $ 33.3 million.

James Murdoch was to receive a payment of 17.9 million, with the bonus of six million. He will receive 11.9 million.The premium for his father is 12.5 million.

Vice President Chase Carey has seen its fee increase by 16% to $ 30.2 million.

As head of international affairs, James Murdoch is under fire from the media and the public since the revelation of the scandal at New Plays of the World July 4.

That same day, two longtime directors have announced their intention to leave the board. This is Thomas Perkins, who turns 80 this year, and Kenneth Cowley, 76. Jim Breyer, 50, will seek election to the board.

James Murdoch said he would consult with the Compensation Committee "to see if any premium might be appropriate at a later date."

Job creation in the private sector in the United States were below expectations in August, according to the results of the monthly ADP released Wednesday.

It was created 91,000 jobs in August, while the market was expecting 100,000.

The number of jobs created in July was revised down to 109,000, against 114,000 in the first estimate.

ADP Employer Services survey, conducted in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, is considered a leading indicator of monthly statistics on employment figures which are expected on Friday.

Economists polled by Reuters anticipate 75,000 new posts in the private and the public, but outside the agricultural sector after 117,000 in July.

Wall Street finished the Monday session in a very small increase after four weeks of losses, closing a session with no real trend in a very fragile economic environment.

The New York Stock Exchange finished up 0.34% Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial 30 win 37 points to 10,854.65 points.

The S & P-500, wider took 0.29 point or 0.03% to 1123.82 points.

The Nasdaq Composite was up on its side of 3.54 points (0.15%) to 2345.38 points.

After four weeks in a row in the red, Wall Street has had a turbulent session, alternating folds and rebounds.

The shares have been particularly cheap buyouts, some stakeholders holding that the market had become oversold and the market turned upward late in the session in a climate of extreme volatility as fears of another recession in the United States and those of a destabilization of the European financial system remain.

In this context, investors will watch carefully for signs of possible new measures to support the Federal Reserve the U.S. economy, when its central bankers will meet Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Values, the title took Lowe's Companies 1.139% after announcing it would spend five billion dollars to buy back shares over a period of two to three years.

Boeing took the title also 1.45%. Leaders of Delta Air Lines (0.13%) should vote this week an order for 100 Boeing 737 planes worth 8.58 billion dollars (six billion euros), Bloomberg announced News, citing two sources familiar with the matter.

Technology stocks like IBM (0.91%) or Hewlett-Packard (3.6%), are among the best performances of the day while financial still lost ground. The title of Bank of America fell 7.89%.

Wall Street closed in fall of 3.68% Thursday against the backdrop of gloomy statistics for U.S. growth and sharp decline in banking stocks, hit by fears of contagion from the debt crisis through the U.S. subsidiaries of European banks .

The New York Stock Exchange ended down 3.68% Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial yielding 30 419.63 points to 10,990.58 points.

The S & P-500, wider, lost 53.24 points, or -4.46% to 1140.65 points.

The Nasdaq Composite fell on its side of 131.05 points (-5.22%) to 2380.43 points.

The CBOE volatility index, also known as the "fear index," jumped 37.62%.Since April 29, the S & P 500 has lost about 16% of its value, investors moving away from risky assets in this uncertain economy.

In Europe, the European stock markets saw another black day and extremely volatile.The Euro Stoxx 50 has dropped 5.3% while the implied volatility of index pan jumped 34.6%.

The macroeconomic picture in the United States has further clouded Thursday's jobless claims rose more than expected last week, the Philly Fed index in August hit its lowest level since March 2009, home resales fell against unexpectedly in July.

The weekly jobless claims rose in the United States during the week to August 13, at 408,000 against 399,000 (revised) the previous week.

In addition, Morgan Stanley lowered its growth forecasts for the global economy for the years 2011 and 2012, the revision is stronger for developed countries.

As in Europe, banks were particularly affected, the S & P financials fell 5% and the KBW bank index of 5.63%.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York accentuated his investigations on the U.S. subsidiaries of major European banks, fearing that the debt crisis in Europe will be transmitted to the U.S. economy through them.

And what the boss of the New York Fed's William Dudley, who responded by saying that the central bank treated "exactly the same way" the U.S. and European banks, have it seems not enough to reassure investors.

Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, respectively, showed a decline of 6.26%, 6%, 3.77%, 3.5% and 4.76%.

Values ​​highly correlated to growth have also suffered greatly, securities IBM, United Technologies and Oracle declining by 4.46%, 5.45% and 8.3%.

Finally the title Hewlett-Packard unscrewed from 6% after the announcement of the takeover of British Autonomy and a possible split with its business PC sales history. The group also released its quarterly results and lowered its annual forecast.

The Societe Generale shares ended Thursday on a rebound of almost 4%, with most other financial stocks after the French heavy fall the previous day.

Extreme nervousness prevailed throughout the session as investors fearing a scarcity of financial resources available in the European banking system.

Banks borrowed more than 4 billion euros, its highest since mid-May, the European Central Bank under the Credit Facility to one day of the ECB, which is higher than others.

French banking stocks, after being divided down in the late morning, have all ended in the green.

Societe Generale, which had plunged nearly 15% Wednesday, closed on an increase of 3.7% to 23.00 euros, Credit Agricole of 5.14% to 6.385 euros.

Affected by exposure to Italy, BNP Paribas has completed the session on a more limited increase of 0.31% to 35.72 euros.

The European banking index on the other hand finished up 3.9%, particularly driven by the rebound in banking stocks Italian and British.

Asia banking sources have told Reuters that Asian bank had cut its credit lines to large French banks and five other institutions in the region were currently reviewing their credit.