Poul Thomsen, the head of IMF mission in Greece, will have to recognize that slow the pace of fiscal consolidation since the recession is more severe than expected. The head of IMF mission to monitor the recovery of Greek finances, Poul Thomsen (here in Athens November 19, 2011) The head of IMF mission to monitor the recovery of Greek finances, Poul Thomsen, acknowledged errors in the control of the country for two years and called for fewer budget cuts and further liberalization, in an interview published Wednesday. "The budgetary adjustment was based on an exaggerated tax increases, we should have put more emphasis on cost containment is the one area where we could have been more convincing to the government "said the IMF representative, when asked about possible errors of the IMF by the Greek daily Khatimerini." Although much remains to be done, Greece has made good progress, "he said, claiming to understand the discomfort of the Greek opinion against criticism blaming the downturn on the country or accusing him of being unable to recover. "We should be more careful to ensure that we send a balanced message when we say that the program is off the rails," he said. But "reform and the effort required (…) have lost their momentum, we must find her," he ajouté.Poul Thomsen was recognized "worried" at the worsening of the recession-induced these measures. "We need to slow down the pace of fiscal consolidation and advance much faster in the implementation of reforms." He reiterated that among them, he supported measures to wage cuts in the private sector, as expected IMF boost the economy via a gain in competitiveness, but rejected by the Greeks as being at risk of stopping further consumption and activity. Poul Thomsen in particular called for a reduction in the minimum wage, red rag to the unions, stating that 'to 751 euros gross per month was 35% higher than that of Portugal, and from 20% to that of Spain. Despite reservations Greek on these requirements, he found that the negotiations that led to the side its counterparts Commission and European Central Bank with the government to complete the new plan for the country's recovery will be concluded "very shortly, within a few days."Target these days of sharp attacks in the Greek press as too inflexible and challenged him as in the IMF because of the failures encountered by the first bailout of Greece, Mr. Thomsen also emphasized working in full agreement with colleagues at the IMF.
Statements are increasing demand for greater involvement of the European Central Bank in supporting countries' debt fragile. Germany opposes even his veto. But until when? German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The list of support for bold action from the European Central Bank (ECB) on the European debt grows by the day. On Tuesday the United States have supported through the U.S. ambassador to the European Union. William Kennard suggested essentially the ECB to take as an example the action of the Fed during the crisis. Much more direct, the former head of Credit Lyonnais Jean Peyrelevade said that "if one does not involve the ECB, while Petera." This does not prevent the leaders of the Central Bank to resist these demands, aided by Germany, its largest shareholder.
The stock exchanges of Paris, Frankfurt and London have opened up Friday, after falling the previous day as investors hope for feeding a step towards resolving the debt crisis. In Paris the CAC 40 index advanced 0.8% shortly after the opening.
The European banking sector shows some of the strongest performances, gaining 2.4%.
"Investors remain optimistic about a favorable outcome to the debt crisis in Europe.Markets are driven by the hope that the leaders agree on 23 October a viable solution to turn the EFSF, recapitalize the banks and save Greece (…) European leaders could announce release a sum of 940 billion euros to fight against the crisis "Saxo Bank in a note.
At the request of Paris and Berlin, an additional peak in the euro area will probably be held next Wednesday to not only agree on how to maximize the firepower of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), one of the expected by the market to combat the crisis, but also review the new plan to rescue Greece.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended down slightly from 0.04%.Title Olympus closed on a new fall of 6.81%, yielding about 50% of its value since October 13.
The euro turned down against the dollar and the price of U.S. light crude continues to rise.
Countries of the European Union agreed Thursday to recapitalize their banks to the tune of 100 billion euros but profound differences between Paris and Berlin on how to reform the fund to support the euro area led them to re- postpone the most important decisions.
This Friday is held an extraordinary meeting of European finance ministers for the summit on 23 October.
BSkyB reported Wednesday a net increase in quarterly profit, sales of additional products to existing customers offsetting the expected decline in new subscriptions.
The FTD British satellite television was the target of a takeover by News Corp., its largest shareholder, until the abortion offensive in July, following the eavesdropping scandal News of the World.
Operating income adjusted for the fiscal first quarter came out better than expected, up from 16% to 295 million pounds (336 million).
Turnover increased by 9% to 1.66 billion pounds, suggesting that the new strategy group, which consists primarily of selling new products to existing customers, seems to be working.
"In difficult market conditions, our movement towards a more broadly based growth and product variety makes us good service," said CEO Jeremy Darroch said in a statement.
The market expected a slowdown in new subscriptions, rising unemployment and inflation in Britain affecting household spending.
During the period from July to September, 26,000 new subscribers joined BSkyB, slightly less than expected by the market and far from the 96,000 new subscribers registered in the same period last year.
"This is not an environment where you can add many new customers through improvements offers TV, but that does not mean that society can not grow and increase its profitability and cash," said Paul Richards, Numis analyst.
By 0800 GMT, the action BSkyB gained 3.26%, while the European sector index media progressed from 0.55%.
Tensions in the interbank market have an impact on the real economy. Nearly a third of French banks have tightened their criteria for business loans. And the movement should be extended.
Credit conditions for firms have tightened slightly in France in the third quarter, according to a survey by the Bank of France to the banks, which provide a greater tightening in the fourth quarter.
The balance between the institutions reporting a tightening and those seeing a relaxation reached 28.5 in the third quarter, according to data released Friday. This is the first tightening since the second quarter of 2009.
The hardening observed is almost the same for large businesses (28.8) and SMEs (28.5).The period from July to September, "the criteria for granting loans to enterprises were tightened more than expected in the previous survey," notes the Bank of France. "This hardening, attributed to both balance sheet constraints and bank financing to the rise of their risks, is reported by less than a third of them and spoke mainly in quarter-end," said the institution.
Banks and particularly given the tightening tensions they encountered to finance markets and the prospect of entry into force of the new regulatory framework Basel III said, in favor of a strict control of the size of balance sheets and thus the volume of loans. This tightening of credit conditions has been accompanied by a decline in business demand, more sensitive SMEs (balance -33.2) than large firms (-15.1).
More worrying for the economy, the banks see these two tendencies assert themselves in the fourth quarter.
The last three months of the year, the institutions surveyed foresee a further tightening (net 41.6), the strongest since the third quarter 2008, which corresponded to the financial crisis. The banks provide the same time, a further slowdown in demand for corporate credit (negative balance of 34.6).
Sealed by the debt crisis, the decline of financial markets and fears of a global slowdown in activity, the business climate and consumer confidence in France is severely degraded in September, which bodes ill for the changes in investment and consumption.
The INSEE surveys confirm a trend which had already been drafted Thursday early results of monthly surveys of Markit PMI and reinforce the scenario of low growth at best in the second half after the stagnation of spring.
The general index of business climate in France was down eight points to 97 and falls below its historical average of 100.
"The economic climate deteriorates in all sectors except the building," INSEE said in a statement.
In manufacturing, the sector's most closely watched, the decline in the index is six points, to 99, its level of August 2010. The indicator for services for its fall eight points to 95.
Consequence of this strong and widespread decline, the turning point indicator, a barometer of changing trends in the economy, "rocking significantly negative zone," said the National Institute of Statistics.
"It is in three consecutive months of strong decline, it falls below the long-term averages," said Frédérique Cerisier, economist at BNP Paribas."The problem is that when it drops to this speed, we do not know when it will stop!"
The preliminary results of PMI surveys have also revealed Thursday a sharp deterioration in business prospects for the coming months.
And the situation is no better on the consumer side: 80 September, the index of consumer confidence calculated by INSEE fell to its lowest level since February 2009. The details of the survey results including access to pessimism about the standard of living and employment.
"SLOW", "stagnation" or "RECESSION"?
Fell in May in its long-term average, the indicator measuring the decision of households on the evolution of unemployment and relapsed to the level of June 2010.A change of course is not conducive to consumption: the balance of opinion on whether to make major purchases and erase its gains in July and is close to its lowest annual.
Enough to feed the scenario of low growth in the third quarter or fourth.
If the Bank of France is waiting for the moment at least nominal growth of 0.1% of GDP for July-September, economists suggest an even darker scenario.
"It is deteriorating very quickly and give a priori that a year-end close to stagnation," summarizes Frédérique Cerisier, at BNP Paribas."Right now, there is no engine of growth."
Joost Beaumont, ABN Amro, is more pessimistic still "in the end, he says, these surveys show that the economy is now flirting with recession, the euro area as a whole, and they underline once again the need for policymakers to take bold steps to contain the crisis. "
A link between political and economic situation has also highlighted Friday Laurence Parisot, the president of MEDEF.
"We are on the verge of a slowdown if there is no political decisions – at the European level and perhaps even across the G20 – clear, which give direction to economic actors that they are businesses or households, "she said on RMC."Of Staggering Blow Staggering Blow in, we can no longer move, you end up doubting, all collectively."
London Stock Exchange confirmed on Friday to discuss the purchase of the clearing house LCH.Clearnet, which is coveted by both the service provider Markit UK by rival Nasdaq OMX.
The LSE, which had been, two months ago, put his hand on the Canadian exchange operator TMX Group, said Friday that it "is currently in discussions with LCH.Clearnet to a potential transaction." He added that discussions were preliminary.
LCH.Clearnet, the majority of whose capital is owned by its customers, had said three months ago, she had been in contact about its possible sale.
The LSE said in late May that he did not discuss with LCH.Clearnet.Media evoked them Markit, a specialist in derivatives traded over-the-counter and Nasdaq OMX, in partnership with NYSE Euronext.
For its part, the Financial Times reported Friday that the LSE has submitted a bid for a majority stake in LCH.Clearnet that values the company around one billion euros.
A takeover of the LSE of LCH.Clearnet would be logical in that, unlike most of its competitors, it does not own its main clearing house.
The LSE is already owner of the Italian clearing house CC & G, which it inherited when it bought Borsa Italiana in 2007.The Director General of Xavier Rolet LSE is keen to diversify its business and to increase the share of revenue under the compensation.
"LSE is not to miss the boat but it is likely he will not be part of a larger group with NYSE and Markit," said one trader in London.
The action LSE lost 1.4% to 919.5 pence in early trade while.
So said Sunday the governor of New Jersey. Another evaluation reported losses of about $ 7 billion. Flooding after Hurricane Irene in Trenton, New Jersey, August 28, 2011.
The damage caused by Hurricane Irene could reach tens of billions of dollars, said Sunday on television the governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie. "The damage will amount to billions of dollars or even tens of billions of dollars," said on NBC the governor of New Jersey, whose state was hit particularly hard by Hurricane Irene, which in Sunday morning was downgraded to a tropical storm.
Another estimate, experts from Kinetic Analysis, a firm that develops computer models of the damage caused by weather, damage caused by Irene could cost 5 to 10 billion dollars, most likely around 7 billion. An official of the firm Kinetic Analysis, Chuck Watson, said further that the North Carolina and South Carolina, two states that were the first to be affected by the hurricane, could expect losses of up 200 to 400 million.
Losses should weigh more heavily than usual on governments, businesses and citizens, he said. "It does not appear that there is a lot of direct damage related to the wind other than fallen trees," said he."Most of the structural damage will be caused by the rising water because of rain and coastal flooding, which is not covered by private insurance," he adds.
In addition, many companies provide that the insured cover a higher amount of damage in the past. Finally, much of the costs associated with Irene, downgraded to a tropical storm Sunday, will be due to the cessation of operations and evacuations, in the absence of damage, not covered. This will, inter alia on the tourism sector, which may not normally enjoy the weekend, extended by one day Labour Day.
Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005 caused losses estimated at more than $ 100 billion. The heart of the depression has reached New York on Sunday morning, where it caused heavy rains and flooding.
The insurance group Axa said Thursday that improved results in the first half it was validated hopes on its new strategic plan, a set of goals by 2015 to regain favor with investors.
The main parameters of AXA Financial in the first half is better than expected.
Operating income up 10% to 2.222 billion euros, earnings increased 9% to 2.393 billion euros and net income is multiplied by more than 4 to 3,999,000,000 euros thanks to disposals made by the group.
The consensus made by the editor of Reuters on the basis of forecasts of nine analysts showed an average of 2.187 billion euros operating profit 2.275 billion to 3.588 billion and adjusted earnings to net income.
Axa has also highlighted the progress of the new business margin in life insurance, savings, retirement has increased from 21% to 26%, and improvement of 3.8 points in its combined ratio to 99.2% for demonstrate recovery.
If the insurer has depreciated by 92 million euros for Greece in the first half, its low exposure to the country has enabled him – unlike other big financial stocks like Societe Generale – to avoid significant losses .
TRACK
"The results of the first half showed that we are on track to achieve the objectives in our strategic plan AXA Ambition," he said in a statement the CEO Henri de Castries.
If the markets initially welcomed the strategic plan presented in June 2015, the share price has suffered, like the sector, the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area.
Plan Axa several objectives such as to generate 24 billion cumulative operating cash flow available from 2011 to 2015 and 15% ratio of return on equity.
Axa has also redeployed some of its capital to emerging markets and reduce its costs in mature markets.
This strategy resulted in 2010 by selling a portion of its business life insurance in the UK and the acquisition of the Asian operations of the Australian subsidiary AXA APH. The sale of the Canadian subsidiary announced last June is also in the process.
The AXA ordinary share has slightly outperformed the industry in 2011 with a decline of 3.37% since the beginning of the year against a withdrawal of 7.87% for the European insurance.
President Barack Obama on Tuesday signed the text on raising the debt ceiling of the United States, adopted shortly before the Senate, which prevents the country to end up in default.
The agreement, approved yesterday by the House of Representatives, was in the upper house voted by 74 votes against 26.
In a statement at the White House, Barack Obama hailed an "important first step" to ensure that the U.S. no longer live beyond their means.
The president added, however, that other measures would be needed to revive the U.S. economy.
He stressed the need for a "balanced approach" in measures of debt reduction, particularly through tax reform, so that the middle class does not share the heaviest burden of the reforms should be discussed by a bipartisan commission.
He insisted that the sacrifices demanded of Americans are equitably shared, adding that the richer should also be involved.
"Everyone should contribute, it is only fair," he said.
The compromise negotiated in extremis by the Republicans and Democrats planning to reduce the U.S. deficit of 2,100 billion in ten years.
Concerns remain
The U.S. debt ceiling, currently set at 14,300 billion will be raised and the United States and escape to a situation of default, which would have affected the entire global economic system.
In the hours before the vote in the House, uncertainty still hangs over the attitude of the parliamentary basis, both right and left.
In the ranks of the Republican Party majority in the House of Representatives, elected officials close to the Tea Party had raised objections to the compromise negotiated over the weekend in Washington.
In the ranks of the Democratic Party, the left wing complained that the text does not provide immediate tax increases for the wealthiest households and corporations.
Monday night, 174 Republicans voted in favor of the agreement, against 66 who opposed it.The group has divided Democrats, voting for 95 elected, 95 elected voting against.
There remains some concern about a possible deterioration in the sovereign rating of the United States, the Triple A allowing them to obtain financing at favorable rates.
If the world's largest economy was losing the "signature" would increase credit costs in the United States and threaten the fragile economic recovery, with implications for the global economy.
However, Fitch Ratings said Tuesday that the agreement was consistent with the three note "A".For the rating, the risk of default of the United States is "extremely low".
Cuts in public spending
The compromise adopted by Congress provides for drastic reductions in public spending over ten years but does not affect taxation.It creates a bipartisan parliamentary committee responsible for defining the end of November a new plan to reduce the federal deficit.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), non-partisan, confirmed that the compromise would reduce the deficit of at least 2100 billion over ten years.
On a political level, hard to say who should win this long and tortuous process.
Barack Obama, who is running in a second term in November 2012, accepted cuts in public spending of a magnitude greater than what he wanted and will have to convince the electorate as he had left no other choice.
However, the Democratic president could garner points among moderate voters and "independent".
"This process was long and messy and, as with any compromise, the outcome is far from satisfactory," he said in a video message released by his campaign. "But he also launched an important debate on how we address the challenges that lie ahead."
Right, John Boehner, the chairman of the House of Representatives, won the cuts he sought and avoided an immediate increase in taxes.But it could emerge from this crisis with a tarnished image, that of a leader under the influence of too sharp Tea Party, the conservative movement that has developed in recent years on the fringes of the Republican Party.
Finally, the American political establishment as a whole could suffer from these weeks of negotiations, that public opinion could be interpreted as political maneuvering at a time when Washington expects it effective remedies to boost growth and reduce unemployment, which remains at over 9% of the workforce.
"The real loser in this exercise is Washington," said Scott Reed, Republican elections.