PSA Peugeot Citroen expects a contraction of the European car market in 2012 although it is still too early to assess its extent, said Thursday the President of the Executive Philippe Varin.
These remarks were made while the Committee of French Automobile Manufacturers has reported a decrease of 7.6% of new car registrations in November. Data that confirmed the difficulties of PSA, whose sales fell 15.4% last month.
"We will be in Europe, probably negative growth next year.How, we do not know, it's too early, "said Philippe Varin told reporters on the occasion of the inauguration of a new production of three-cylinder engines at its facility in Trémery (Moselle) .
The annual production capacity of the new gasoline engine with smaller displacement will eventually reach 640,000 units per year.
The company said in a statement it had invested 717 million euros since the project began in 2008.
Manufacturers currently rely on the "downsizing", that is to say reducing the displacement of their engines, to reduce CO2 emissions equal power.
The first engines produced Trémery equip the future Peugeot 208 will be sold in the first quarter of 2012.
Greek banks erase their losses Thursday morning as investors bet on a drop of the referendum on the bailout of the country in case of fall of the government.
Banks, who lost up to 5% at the opening, gaining nearly 2% to 10:20.
"Given the developments of the last hours, the possibility of a referendum was removed and the top priority is now the sixth tranche disbursement of aid and approval" of the rescue plan EU says Natasha Roumantzi, an analyst at Piraeus Securities.
George Papandreou Thursday called an emergency meeting of his cabinet at 11:00. The head of government is under fire from critics since he announced Monday night to hold a referendum.
The activity in the private sector in France shrank in October for the first time since mid-2009, according to first estimates released Monday by Markit PMI, which indicate a risk of recession.
The PMI "flash" composite fell to 46.8 from 50.2 in September, falling below 50 which separates growth and contraction and reaching its lowest level in 29 months.
The services index goes well below this bar to 46.0 from 51.5 in September, reaching its lowest level in 27 months.
The PMI industry has, however, rose slightly to 49.0 from 48.2 in September, the activity still continues to contract.
Economists polled by Reuters on average expected the services index and an index to 50.5 from 48.0 in the industry.
"The economy went into decline early in the fourth quarter," said Jack Kennedy, economist at Markit. "Clearly, the impact of the European crisis on the real economy hits hard, demand and confidence were affected."
"At these levels, the PMI figures imply a quarterly contraction of around 0.5-0.6% sensitive," he says. "A recession may be coming unless we see a quick turnaround," said he.
Flash PMIs are calculated on the basis of about 85% of the responses of the sample followed by Markit, composed of 750 companies in services and manufacturing.
Countries of the European Union agreed Thursday to recapitalize their banks to the tune of 100 billion euros but profound differences between Paris and Berlin on how to reform the fund to support the euro area led again postpone the most important decisions.
At the request of Paris and Berlin, an additional peak in the euro area will be held next Wednesday to not only agree on how to maximize the firepower of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), one of the expected by the market to combat the crisis, but also review the new plan to rescue Greece.
Another failure could undermine investor confidence definitely in the ability of Europeans to put an end to the debt crisis and put them in a particularly uncomfortable position for the G20 summit in Cannes in early November.
The bloc, however, managed to make progress on the bank part of the "global response" they hoped to present Sunday.
Several European sources and banking, they have agreed to inject including 100 billion euros in banks on the continent to strengthen their capital, a move that was expected to take into account the depreciation of the sovereign debt of countries in the euro area.
"The figure was discussed with Member States.It is now acceptable to all, "said a source familiar with the discussions.
The banks will first have to use their internal reserves or market and then to national funds.Once these possibilities exhausted, it will use the funds from the EFSF.
EFSF, GREECE
Faced with the difficulties to agree on the reform of the EFSF and the contours of the new rescue plan for Greece, Paris and Berlin have agreed to this additional meeting of Heads of State and Government of the single currency, in Brussels.
President Nicolas Sarkozy and Chancellor Angela Merkel also announced in a joint statement they would meet on Saturday night in Brussels to discuss the various topics of these meetings.
Regarding the EFSF, Paris insists that the fund receive a banking license, allowing it to access funding from the European Central Bank and increase its capacity for action by a factor of up to five.
Berlin refuses, however, this possibility and is working on an alternative of allowing the EFSF to pay interest on the debt of countries receiving international aid program.
The latter mechanism is far from unanimous among the countries of the euro.
According to several sources, Paris and Berlin are unable either to agree on the amount of the participation of banks in new bailout of Greece.
The German authorities, in particular Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, insist that the envelope of 50 billion euros negotiated on July 21 is significantly revised upwards, if necessary by forcing banks to make an extra effort.
"(Wolfgang) Schäuble is pushing the most for the discount (on securities Greek) goes at least 50% or more," said one source.
According to these sources, the idea made its way to several Member States not to be limited to the voluntary participation of banks, but to force them to a more ambitious plan for Greece.
"Seriously, everyone knows that when you request a discount of 50%, as does Germany, it is not a voluntary decision," insisted one of them.
Another source said that the countries now working on scenarios "aggressive" in reducing the Greek debt.
MARKETS Skeptics
If they divide the Europeans, these scenarios are needed to satisfy the International Monetary Fund, which is concerned about the ability of Greece to manage its debt and is awaiting the results of the summit on Sunday to release the next tranche of aid in Athens, according to three sources.
The position of the IMF, however, should not jeopardize the payment of 8 million euros in Athens in mid-November, otherwise Greece would fail and could result in his fall Spain and Italy, causing a shock of the impact difficult to measure for the European banking sector.
Greece was plunged into recession and debt should continue to rise to 357 billion euros this year, about 162% of GDP, an amount that most economists believe is impossible to fulfill.
As protests continued in Athens, markets greeted coldly this cacophony European hoped after a time earlier this week a prompt resolution of the crisis.
The euro initially fell on rumors of postponement of the summit, he then bounced back when they were denied.
Analysts are also skeptical themselves.
"I do not think they can meet expectations. The results of the summit will be very much less than the big bang that markets needed to be reassured," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London.
The budget deficit widened further in Greece in September due to a recession driven by austerity measures, in spite of new tax measures that were supposed to increase revenue.
The budget deficit increased by 15% annually, to 19.16 billion euros over the period from January to September, show statistics from the Ministry of Finance released Wednesday.
In September, Athens increased VAT on catering to 23% and began collecting a special tax of 1% to 5% on gross revenues.
However, tax revenues fell by 4.2% over the nine months January to September, after falling 5.3% over a period of eight months.
Sealed by the debt crisis, the decline of financial markets and fears of a global slowdown in activity, the business climate and consumer confidence in France is severely degraded in September, which bodes ill for the changes in investment and consumption.
The INSEE surveys confirm a trend which had already been drafted Thursday early results of monthly surveys of Markit PMI and reinforce the scenario of low growth at best in the second half after the stagnation of spring.
The general index of business climate in France was down eight points to 97 and falls below its historical average of 100.
"The economic climate deteriorates in all sectors except the building," INSEE said in a statement.
In manufacturing, the sector's most closely watched, the decline in the index is six points, to 99, its level of August 2010. The indicator for services for its fall eight points to 95.
Consequence of this strong and widespread decline, the turning point indicator, a barometer of changing trends in the economy, "rocking significantly negative zone," said the National Institute of Statistics.
"It is in three consecutive months of strong decline, it falls below the long-term averages," said Frédérique Cerisier, economist at BNP Paribas."The problem is that when it drops to this speed, we do not know when it will stop!"
The preliminary results of PMI surveys have also revealed Thursday a sharp deterioration in business prospects for the coming months.
And the situation is no better on the consumer side: 80 September, the index of consumer confidence calculated by INSEE fell to its lowest level since February 2009. The details of the survey results including access to pessimism about the standard of living and employment.
"SLOW", "stagnation" or "RECESSION"?
Fell in May in its long-term average, the indicator measuring the decision of households on the evolution of unemployment and relapsed to the level of June 2010.A change of course is not conducive to consumption: the balance of opinion on whether to make major purchases and erase its gains in July and is close to its lowest annual.
Enough to feed the scenario of low growth in the third quarter or fourth.
If the Bank of France is waiting for the moment at least nominal growth of 0.1% of GDP for July-September, economists suggest an even darker scenario.
"It is deteriorating very quickly and give a priori that a year-end close to stagnation," summarizes Frédérique Cerisier, at BNP Paribas."Right now, there is no engine of growth."
Joost Beaumont, ABN Amro, is more pessimistic still "in the end, he says, these surveys show that the economy is now flirting with recession, the euro area as a whole, and they underline once again the need for policymakers to take bold steps to contain the crisis. "
A link between political and economic situation has also highlighted Friday Laurence Parisot, the president of MEDEF.
"We are on the verge of a slowdown if there is no political decisions – at the European level and perhaps even across the G20 – clear, which give direction to economic actors that they are businesses or households, "she said on RMC."Of Staggering Blow Staggering Blow in, we can no longer move, you end up doubting, all collectively."
A sale of the Company in general management company Amundi is strategically the most sense among the options available to the French banking group to improve its financial situation, say analysts and fund managers polled by Reuters.
The French bank, already forced to leave in early August its financial targets for 2012, said Monday that it would proceed with asset sales and cost reductions to free up four billion euros in additional capital by 2013. CEO Frederic Oudéa said the sale will take place in the asset management, investor services and financial services.
"The bank is in a very bad happening today.She has no choice, she will have to sell the family jewels to pay off debt and improve its capital position, "said Fabrice Cousté, CEO of CMC Markets.
The managers believe that, already in asset management with Lyxor, the Company generally does not need to be also through CAAM, its joint venture with Credit Agricole in which it holds 25%.
Especially since Lyxor Amundi competition and the 'green banking', which holds the remaining 75% of Amundi could enjoy being sole master on board.
"PILL ANTI-TAKEOVER"
"Strategically, Lyxor is closer to core business (investment banking, network, etc.) of the Company qu'Amundi general," notes Frédéric Jamet, Director of Management at State Street Global Advisors France.
"Amundi had a strategic interest in Societe Generale as pill anti-takeover, but now it is not the issue.A rational, logical, would be to focus on activities identified clear and validating the strategic refocusing of the bank, "he adds.
Analysts estimate that as other European banks, Societe Generale is underfunded and needs to raise new funds, while its capital adequacy ratio "hard" (core Tier 1) stood at 6.6% in Scenario macroeconomic worst in recent bank stress tests conducted in Europe, the lowest of French banks.
"Banks need to raise more capital to avoid bankruptcy, especially if exposure to Greece continues to affect markets. A core Tier 1 ratio between 3% and 5% is too low, it must be significantly higher .From 8% this ratio begins to be sufficient, "said Stefan Isaacs, bond manager at M & G Investments.
Another track planned by Fabrice Cousté, SocGen could give Boursorama, which it owns 55% according to Reuters data. Boursorama is valued around 560 million euros in stock, or about 5% of the capitalization of the Company generally.
No one was immediately available at Societe Generale and Credit Agricole declined to comment.
Job creation in the private sector in the United States were below expectations in August, according to the results of the monthly ADP released Wednesday.
It was created 91,000 jobs in August, while the market was expecting 100,000.
The number of jobs created in July was revised down to 109,000, against 114,000 in the first estimate.
ADP Employer Services survey, conducted in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, is considered a leading indicator of monthly statistics on employment figures which are expected on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters anticipate 75,000 new posts in the private and the public, but outside the agricultural sector after 117,000 in July.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended up 0.29% Friday, purchasing cheap market conservative who supported a highly anticipated speech before the President of the Federal Reserve.
The Nikkei gained 25.42 points to 8797.78 points and the Topix, broader took 4.25 points (0.57%) to 756.07 points.
Ben Bernanke is speaking from 14:00 GMT to Jackson Hole (Wyoming), a speech that investors around the world hope to gain clues about the Fed's intentions concerning the U.S. economy.
Hope to see Ben Bernanke announced a new plan to support the economy supported the equity markets early in the week, but this enthusiasm has been tempered somewhat.
"The Index (Nikkei) remains below 9.000 points, and is the level where investors buy stocks with attractive valuations, "said Hideyuki Okoshi, director of Chibagin Securities.
On small volumes, some values abused since the beginning of the month and have found favor with investors.
Elpida, the third manufacturer of DRAM, in particular, jumped 17.58% to 535 yen after losing up to 40% in one month due to the capital increase announced by the group.
The insurance group Axa said Thursday that improved results in the first half it was validated hopes on its new strategic plan, a set of goals by 2015 to regain favor with investors.
The main parameters of AXA Financial in the first half is better than expected.
Operating income up 10% to 2.222 billion euros, earnings increased 9% to 2.393 billion euros and net income is multiplied by more than 4 to 3,999,000,000 euros thanks to disposals made by the group.
The consensus made by the editor of Reuters on the basis of forecasts of nine analysts showed an average of 2.187 billion euros operating profit 2.275 billion to 3.588 billion and adjusted earnings to net income.
Axa has also highlighted the progress of the new business margin in life insurance, savings, retirement has increased from 21% to 26%, and improvement of 3.8 points in its combined ratio to 99.2% for demonstrate recovery.
If the insurer has depreciated by 92 million euros for Greece in the first half, its low exposure to the country has enabled him – unlike other big financial stocks like Societe Generale – to avoid significant losses .
TRACK
"The results of the first half showed that we are on track to achieve the objectives in our strategic plan AXA Ambition," he said in a statement the CEO Henri de Castries.
If the markets initially welcomed the strategic plan presented in June 2015, the share price has suffered, like the sector, the crisis of sovereign debt in the euro area.
Plan Axa several objectives such as to generate 24 billion cumulative operating cash flow available from 2011 to 2015 and 15% ratio of return on equity.
Axa has also redeployed some of its capital to emerging markets and reduce its costs in mature markets.
This strategy resulted in 2010 by selling a portion of its business life insurance in the UK and the acquisition of the Asian operations of the Australian subsidiary AXA APH. The sale of the Canadian subsidiary announced last June is also in the process.
The AXA ordinary share has slightly outperformed the industry in 2011 with a decline of 3.37% since the beginning of the year against a withdrawal of 7.87% for the European insurance.