Business And Personal Finance

Statements are increasing demand for greater involvement of the European Central Bank in supporting countries' debt fragile. Germany opposes even his veto. But until when? German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The list of support for bold action from the European Central Bank (ECB) on the European debt grows by the day. On Tuesday the United States have supported through the U.S. ambassador to the European Union. William Kennard suggested essentially the ECB to take as an example the action of the Fed during the crisis. Much more direct, the former head of Credit Lyonnais Jean Peyrelevade said that "if one does not involve the ECB, while Petera." This does not prevent the leaders of the Central Bank to resist these demands, aided by Germany, its largest shareholder.

The activity in the private sector in France shrank in October for the first time since mid-2009, according to first estimates released Monday by Markit PMI, which indicate a risk of recession.

The PMI "flash" composite fell to 46.8 from 50.2 in September, falling below 50 which separates growth and contraction and reaching its lowest level in 29 months.

The services index goes well below this bar to 46.0 from 51.5 in September, reaching its lowest level in 27 months.

The PMI industry has, however, rose slightly to 49.0 from 48.2 in September, the activity still continues to contract.

Economists polled by Reuters on average expected the services index and an index to 50.5 from 48.0 in the industry.

"The economy went into decline early in the fourth quarter," said Jack Kennedy, economist at Markit. "Clearly, the impact of the European crisis on the real economy hits hard, demand and confidence were affected."

"At these levels, the PMI figures imply a quarterly contraction of around 0.5-0.6% sensitive," he says. "A recession may be coming unless we see a quick turnaround," said he.

Flash PMIs are calculated on the basis of about 85% of the responses of the sample followed by Markit, composed of 750 companies in services and manufacturing.

International air traffic has slowed in August compared to July, posting a 1.6% decline in passenger traffic and a decline of 1.3% of freight from one month to another, said Monday the 'International Air Transport Association (Iata).

Although passenger traffic has increased by 4.5% year on year in August, this trend remains below the 6.1% growth registered so far for 2011.

Air freight has declined in August by 3.8% year on year and increased by only 0.2% since the beginning of the year.

"With business confidence and consumer continues to deteriorate globally, there is not much optimism for an improvement next conditions (sector)," said the Director General of IATA, Tony Tyler.

IATA represents 230 airlines and 93% of global air traffic.

He who led the PS group in the Senate for seven years was elected by his peers Saturday President of the Upper House of Parliament. He promises to respect the opposition. Jean-Pierre Bel, an elected Ariège, 59, was elected on October 1 by his peers first socialist president in the history of the Senate.

Jean-Pierre Bel, an elected Ariège, 59, previously unknown to the general public, was elected the first Saturday in October by his peers first socialist president in the history of the Senate and became the same time the second character of the Republic. President of the Socialist Group in the Senate since 2004, he burst onto the front of the stage with the unusual shift to the left of the second chamber of Parliament during the renewal Senate last Sunday.Candidate of the new Senate majority PS, PCF, PRG, EELV, he was elected on the first ballot by 179 votes against 134 votes for President outgoing UMP Gérard Larcher, and 29 votes for the former Secretary of State François Fillon, Valérie Létard, centrist candidate. Jean-Pierre Bel got seven votes more than the absolute majority of votes cast in the individual and secret vote in the gallery.

After receiving félications Gerard Larcher, Jean-Pierre Bel delivered his first address as president. "We also heard the deep anger" of the territories of the Republic "for" have been stigmatized, disoriented, perhaps abandoned their face immense difficulties, "he said. He announced the meeting" soon "to States General of elected officials.'s voice choked with emotion, he paid tribute to his family, and communist resistance, and its southwestern region."We will not go into some sort of bastion," "I'll never be there to serve a clan or a Customer: I want always to turn to the collective interest," promised the sixth President of the Senate since the beginning of the Fifth Republic. He called for a "refurbished bicameralism in which the opposition will be respected." It could well be left to the right as President of the Committee on Finance.

François Rebsamen likely chairman of the PS in the Senate

The first task the new president will also get on with the new governance of the Senate, a site not easy given the narrowness of his majority, 177 elected, two more than the majority. No political group will not hold its own. He expressed support for lowering the threshold for the creation of groups of 15 to 10 senators, as claimed by the 10 senators EELV.This may allow the RDSE (mostly PRG), which had 16 members to survive the departure of its three senators on the right, including Jean-Marie Bockel (GM), who joined the centrist group. It will also order of battle group PS with a new president should be the senator and mayor of Dijon, François Rebsamen.

Prime Minister Francois Fillon has asked "to meet him at Matignon in the coming days." During their telephone conversation, Mr Fillon told him "that he wished the government and the Supreme Assembly to work in a climate of responsibility." Martine Aubry welcomed her as a "great day" for the Republic and "victory rally" of all those "who want to change in our country."For the Mayor of Lille, "the election of a Socialist President shows the frustration of elected officials in the field who are tired of being despised by the outgoing President and see every day our Republic a little damaged." François Hollande, a favorite of the primary PS, said he was also "happy" with the election of his "friend" to the presidency of the Senate, seeing "the consecration of the story of a man who gave a portion of his life to activism. "

Shaken by a drop in subscriptions, the magazine of the National Institute of consumption could increase in the private sector, the risk that its credibility challenged.

While its competitor, the UFC-Que Choisir a hit, the magazine "60 million consumers" has seen its sales plummet by 22% between 2008 and 2011, according to an audit of the accounting firm of MBV & Associates, commissioned by the National Consumer Institute (INC), owner of the title. The erosion is partly due to the termination of a policy of recruiting new subscribers in recent years. Now, to return to profitability, the magazine should flow to 200,000 copies, twice today.result, the UFC-Que Choisir has 420,000 subscribers to 30 million euros in revenue and 60 million consumers of only 100,000 subscribers to 10 million euros.

For MVB & Associates, a status quo would lead to accumulated losses of € 4 million over the next three years, involving the continuity of the title. Conclusion of the firm: the magazine must be backed by the private sector, the only way to inject € 18.5 million for its re-floated. For now, while the parliament is considering a draft law on consumer rights, no decision has been taken and two scenarios are being studied in INC.

Two scenarios under consideration

"Either we are content to mobilize internal resources at the institute who are not fertile and we made a small raise of the subscription.However this can not go very far, "said Francis Amand, president of the board." Either we have a more ambitious recovery and growth capacity, requiring more funding that could come only from a private operator, "he added. A decision could be taken at a board of directors of the INC on 9 November.

The scenario of backing caused an outcry among staff and among some readers, who fear for the independence of the magazine. "Regulators want to get rid of the newspaper." 60 million "can not keep its identity and mission of public service outside of the INC," said Lionel Maugain, staff representative on the board. A support committee was set up by readers and journalists to oppose any backing to the private sector.Thursday, nearly 7,000 people had signed.

"It is difficult to an investor put money in a way that could not provide a lot of sales because the potential reader would think that this title is biased," assured Francis Amand. A charter could also be signed to ensure editorial independence, he said.

"60 million" was founded in 1970 by the INC, who realized that TV shows were not enough to inform the consumer. nitially released under the name "50 million consumers," the magazine is primarily known for its main comparative tests on the appliances. Then he is getting stronger with campaigns that make loud noise on the soaring prices and declining purchasing power, or on the Harms dyes, abuse of trustees and breathalyzers unreliable.A score of journalists working for the magazine, working closely with engineers, lawyers and economists INC.

A sale of the Company in general management company Amundi is strategically the most sense among the options available to the French banking group to improve its financial situation, say analysts and fund managers polled by Reuters.

The French bank, already forced to leave in early August its financial targets for 2012, said Monday that it would proceed with asset sales and cost reductions to free up four billion euros in additional capital by 2013. CEO Frederic Oudéa said the sale will take place in the asset management, investor services and financial services.

"The bank is in a very bad happening today.She has no choice, she will have to sell the family jewels to pay off debt and improve its capital position, "said Fabrice Cousté, CEO of CMC Markets.

The managers believe that, already in asset management with Lyxor, the Company generally does not need to be also through CAAM, its joint venture with Credit Agricole in which it holds 25%.

Especially since Lyxor Amundi competition and the 'green banking', which holds the remaining 75% of Amundi could enjoy being sole master on board.

"PILL ANTI-TAKEOVER"

"Strategically, Lyxor is closer to core business (investment banking, network, etc.) of the Company qu'Amundi general," notes Frédéric Jamet, Director of Management at State Street Global Advisors France.

"Amundi had a strategic interest in Societe Generale as pill anti-takeover, but now it is not the issue.A rational, logical, would be to focus on activities identified clear and validating the strategic refocusing of the bank, "he adds.

Analysts estimate that as other European banks, Societe Generale is underfunded and needs to raise new funds, while its capital adequacy ratio "hard" (core Tier 1) stood at 6.6% in Scenario macroeconomic worst in recent bank stress tests conducted in Europe, the lowest of French banks.

"Banks need to raise more capital to avoid bankruptcy, especially if exposure to Greece continues to affect markets. A core Tier 1 ratio between 3% and 5% is too low, it must be significantly higher .From 8% this ratio begins to be sufficient, "said Stefan Isaacs, bond manager at M & G Investments.

Another track planned by Fabrice Cousté, SocGen could give Boursorama, which it owns 55% according to Reuters data. Boursorama is valued around 560 million euros in stock, or about 5% of the capitalization of the Company generally.

No one was immediately available at Societe Generale and Credit Agricole declined to comment.

The French president in whirlwind visit to Beijing to prepare for the next G20, estimates that China has "a major role" in reviving global growth. "We need the G20 summit (…) make decisions and take part in the revival of global growth. This is a major issue and China has a key role," said Nicolas Sarkozy.

The next G20 summit in Cannes will "decide" to revive the global economy, China is playing a "major role" in the process, said Thursday in Beijing Nicolas Sarkozy. The French president was greeted by his counterpart Hu Jintao at the Palace of the people of Beijing, Tiananmen Square, for a whirlwind tour of about five hours, with talks on Libya and sovereign debt crisis, and a dinner working with the Chinese president.

"As chair of the G20, I could not imagine not coming to China to talk with my Chinese friends of the great economic issues of concern to the world," said the head of the French state. "We need the G20 summit (…) make decisions and take part in the revival of global growth. This is a major issue and China has a key role," he added, to sides of the Minister of Finance Baroin came just prepare for this appointment.

The next summit of the G20 (group of rich countries and major emerging markets, currently chaired by Paris) will be held in Cannes (south-eastern France) on November 3 and 4. "That France and China strengthen their dialogue is of great importance for the success of the summit in Cannes, for strengthening international economic cooperation and to promote recovery and healthy development of the global economy," said Hu Jintao.

Paris and Beijing in phase of the post-Qadhafi

Nicolas Sarkozy is located in Beijing while the fall of the regime in Libya is not complete: the remaining pockets of resistance in Tripoli after the entry of rebel and Colonel Qaddafi is not found. But after being in Paris on Wednesday the number two of the rebellion Libya, Mahmoud Jibril, Sarkozy has proposed a conference of "Friends of Libya" on 1 September in Paris, which would go beyond the mere contact group and include the major emerging economies such as China. If China was hostile to the coalition strikes against Libya, it is however in line with Paris on the post-Qadhafi since Beijing also wants to see the UN play a "leading role" in Libya.

But the official newspaper China Daily Thursday gave a somewhat optimistic vision of the post-Gaddafi, saying "inevitable chaos and conflict emerge as the various opposition factions will fight for the political leadership." "China must maintain contact with all parties," added the newspaper.

The presidents Sarkozy and Hu should also talk about the problem of sovereign debt in Europe that undermine stock markets. The Global Times said Thursday in its Chinese version that Sarkozy "has just (in Beijing) first to get the continued support of China on the resolution of sovereign debt crisis in Europe." Considering that "26% of foreign exchange reserves of China are in euros," Ding Chun, professor at the Center for Research on Europe at the University of Fudan, Shanghai, called in the official newspaper of Europe to put the finances in order.

"The EU and Sarkozy have, while calling on China to take more responsibility in maintaining the stability of the global economy, making a decisive and courageous sacrifices (…) that developed countries must to face global challenges. " After a press statement, Mr Sarkozy will resume early in the evening fly to New Caledonia where it is to open Saturday the fourteenth game of the Pacific.

Wall Street closed in fall of 3.68% Thursday against the backdrop of gloomy statistics for U.S. growth and sharp decline in banking stocks, hit by fears of contagion from the debt crisis through the U.S. subsidiaries of European banks .

The New York Stock Exchange ended down 3.68% Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial yielding 30 419.63 points to 10,990.58 points.

The S & P-500, wider, lost 53.24 points, or -4.46% to 1140.65 points.

The Nasdaq Composite fell on its side of 131.05 points (-5.22%) to 2380.43 points.

The CBOE volatility index, also known as the "fear index," jumped 37.62%.Since April 29, the S & P 500 has lost about 16% of its value, investors moving away from risky assets in this uncertain economy.

In Europe, the European stock markets saw another black day and extremely volatile.The Euro Stoxx 50 has dropped 5.3% while the implied volatility of index pan jumped 34.6%.

The macroeconomic picture in the United States has further clouded Thursday's jobless claims rose more than expected last week, the Philly Fed index in August hit its lowest level since March 2009, home resales fell against unexpectedly in July.

The weekly jobless claims rose in the United States during the week to August 13, at 408,000 against 399,000 (revised) the previous week.

In addition, Morgan Stanley lowered its growth forecasts for the global economy for the years 2011 and 2012, the revision is stronger for developed countries.

As in Europe, banks were particularly affected, the S & P financials fell 5% and the KBW bank index of 5.63%.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York accentuated his investigations on the U.S. subsidiaries of major European banks, fearing that the debt crisis in Europe will be transmitted to the U.S. economy through them.

And what the boss of the New York Fed's William Dudley, who responded by saying that the central bank treated "exactly the same way" the U.S. and European banks, have it seems not enough to reassure investors.

Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, respectively, showed a decline of 6.26%, 6%, 3.77%, 3.5% and 4.76%.

Values ​​highly correlated to growth have also suffered greatly, securities IBM, United Technologies and Oracle declining by 4.46%, 5.45% and 8.3%.

Finally the title Hewlett-Packard unscrewed from 6% after the announcement of the takeover of British Autonomy and a possible split with its business PC sales history. The group also released its quarterly results and lowered its annual forecast.

Wall Street opened Tuesday's session on a positive note, benefiting from the publication of a series of quarterly results found quite encouraging.

A few minutes after the start of trading, the Dow Jones gained 0.97% to 12,504.87 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 index 0.93% to 1317.60 points and the Nasdaq Composite 1.39% to 2803.45 points.

Securities Bank of America and Coca-Cola took 0.4% and 1.8% at the opening after the publication of their results.

In contrast, as Goldman Sachs fell by 1.88%, the results of the group with the second quarter disappointed investors.

Wall Street rebound is possible next week thanks to the good performance of a technical resistance level of the S & P 500 and the traditional cleaning of quarter-end portfolios.

For the week, the Dow lost 0.58% and 0.24% S & P but the Nasdaq gained 1.39%. The Dow and S & P accuse their seventh week of decline over the last eight.The S & P shows a decrease of 8.2% from its peak three years hit early May.

Despite this drop, the index managed to stay above its moving average 200 days, a line of defense considered essential by technical analysts.

This leads some to say that many investors are prepared to enter the market to defend this threshold in order to consolidate a good technical base prior to orchestrate a rebound during the season for corporate earnings, which begins in two weeks.

That said, the three factors that explain the decline in Wall Street two months ago are still there: the risk of default of Greece, the U.S. macro-economic indicators painting a picture of unfavorable conditions in the United States and the question of limit the liability of the world's largest economy.

Deputy Prime Minister of Greece has warned this weekend that recalcitrant MPs could block some reforms sought by the donor, even if Parliament should support the overall austerity plan in the vote Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve Wednesday cut its forecast for economic growth in the U.S. and kept interest rates close to zero but has not so far suggested that a new monetary support was being prepared.

President Barack Obama will meet Monday, separately, the leading Democratic and Republican Senate to try to revive negotiations on raising the debt ceiling.

Weakened RESISTANCE

While the S & P 500 managed to not go under the moving average 200 days, nothing says that it is immune to such developments.

Based on the closing price of Friday, the average is now 1.263.47 points, while the index ended last week on a course of 1268.45.

"Every time we test the level of support, it is fragile. It's like a piece of metal.Every time we beat him, it becomes more fragile, "said Nicholas Colas," technical analyst at ConvergEx Group.

In the absence of results of companies, are the statistics that will help determine market direction next week.

In addition to the weekly jobless claims, expected Thursday, the figures are related to real estate and industry of attention.

The S & P Case-Shiller home price next will be published Tuesday and promises of home sales are on the program Wednesday.

The ISM manufacturing index in June, scheduled Friday, to fall to 51.9, which would indicate a further slowdown in the growth of this sector.