Archive for the 'tidings' Category
PSA Peugeot Citroen expects a contraction of the European car market in 2012 although it is still too early to assess its extent, said Thursday the President of the Executive Philippe Varin.
These remarks were made while the Committee of French Automobile Manufacturers has reported a decrease of 7.6% of new car registrations in November. Data that confirmed the difficulties of PSA, whose sales fell 15.4% last month.
"We will be in Europe, probably negative growth next year.How, we do not know, it's too early, "said Philippe Varin told reporters on the occasion of the inauguration of a new production of three-cylinder engines at its facility in Trémery (Moselle) .
The annual production capacity of the new gasoline engine with smaller displacement will eventually reach 640,000 units per year.
The company said in a statement it had invested 717 million euros since the project began in 2008.
Manufacturers currently rely on the "downsizing", that is to say reducing the displacement of their engines, to reduce CO2 emissions equal power.
The first engines produced Trémery equip the future Peugeot 208 will be sold in the first quarter of 2012.
The OECD slashed its growth forecast Monday for the 2012 United States and the euro area, urging G20 leaders to act quickly to restore confidence and avoid a severe contraction in developed economies.
In a note issued in anticipation of the G20 summit on 3 and 4 November in Cannes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its 2012 growth forecast for the euro area to 0.3% against 2.0% in May and 1.8% against 3.1% for the United States.
She called on G20 leaders to take "bold" to calm market turbulence and show that they can implement structural reforms address the debt crisis.
The OECD estimates that deteriorating financial conditions of the order of that seen during the crisis of 2007-2009 could result in loss of up to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) of some OECD economies of 'By the first half of 2013.
Conversely, if the measures announced at the EU summit last Wednesday are effectively implemented and that can restore confidence, growth could be better than expected, judge the OECD.
For all G20 countries, the OECD now expects growth of 3.8% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2013, but it will be pulled up by the emerging markets including China (+ 8.6% in 2012 and 9.5% in 2013).
The French Economic Observatory forecasts growth of 0.8% in France in 2012. Pink is the scenario. The black scenario, if the rigor is increasing: a decline in GDP of 0.5%. View the Ministry of Economy and Finance at Bercy.
Three years after the start of the global crisis, the potential for economic recovery of France will be constrained by budgetary savings plans in the country and its European partners, provides for the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). Research Center of Sciences-Po expects growth of 1.6% in 2011 and 0.8% in 2012, while the government expects 1.75% per year.
"This performance is particulièrment poor and far from the normal path of an economy in crisis," said the OFCE in a study released Friday.The rebound potential perceived by the OFCE correspond to a growth rate of 3.8% per annum in 2011 and 2012, which would make up for five years after the crisis began accumulating the output gap. France, then regain its unemployment rate in 2007.
But two external shocks will affect such a scenario. The first, soaring commodity prices, will result in a resurgence of inflation in France and limit spending. It will cause a slowdown in its trading partners, reducing their demand for French products. This shock will reduce growth by 1.3 percentage points over the period 2011-2012. The second shock is linked to policies of fiscal restraint led by European countries.
A recession is not excluded
"In trying to reduce their deficits early, too quickly and synchronously, the governments of European countries run the risk of a new downturn," said the OFCE. The unemployment rate in France is expected to increase steadily to 9.3% and 9.7% end 2011 end 2012, according to the institute. "The low cost of capital discourages businesses not yet set up costly and risky projects", the study also points out, "the investment should not be in 2011 and 2012 an efficient link to make permanent the rebound in growth. "
The OFCE is also considering "a darker scenario" if the government would take "whatever the cost to meet its budget commitments' (deficit down to 4.5% of GDP in 2012 and 3% in 2013), with a decline of 0.5% of GDP in 2012.If the other major European countries were to adopt the same strategy, the activity would fall by 1.7% and unemployment was close 11%, according to the OFCE.
According to a report published Wednesday, parallel trade in cigarettes leads to a shortfall of 2.7 billion euros a year for public finances. About 50% of that traffic comes from cross-border shopping. About 30% of parallel trade in contraband cigarettes comes from the
Parallel trade in cigarettes poisons public finances. Less than a month after the plan to fight against this phenomenon announced by Valérie Pécresse, three MPs filed Wednesday in the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, a report detailed information on "the tax consequences of illicit sales of tobacco. " And the result makes you cough. Details.
A loss of 2.7 billion euros in state
The shortfall in the accounts of the state is estimated at 2.7 billion euros each year.The report states that 20% of sales of tobacco are outside the formal network, made up of 28,000 tobacconists state-controlled. The deputies focused their attention on two types of trade: sales outside formal network but legal (cross-border shopping, duty free …), and the illegal (smuggling, counterfeiting, Internet purchases, etc.).. The first 15% of total cigarette sales, the other 5%. Untaxed, these two forms of traffic respectively deprive France of nearly 2 billion euros in tax revenues for one and 800 million for the other.
The exception rolling tobacco
The report also draws attention to the more favorable taxation of rolling tobacco. This product is a substitute for cigarettes when their prices rise.The consumption of rolling tobacco is in fact the only increase (9% between 2004 and 2010) and continues to pull up the turnover of manufacturers (16.6 billion euros in 2010, + 27% since 2000).
And also the tax side, the economic consequences are "devastating" the report said. No fewer than 5,000 tobacconists have closed since 2002 in France. The border departments undergo the phenomenon of head-on, sales were down 52% in volume from 2002 to 2010. By way of explanation, the report points including "differences in prices and taxes" in Europe. In the Hexagon, cigarettes cost between 60 cents and 3.30 euros more than in all neighboring countries. And it's not over: 17 October, the prices of packages will grow by 6%. Even if it does not explain everything, the total tax applied to tobacco products is one of the main causes.In France, it is one of the most aggressive in Europe, representing over 80% of the original price.
Cross-border cigarette smuggling accounts for 50% of parallel trade
This environment encourages such cross-border purchases, depressing the French tobacconists. Such traffic is 50% of informal trade of cigarettes, according to professionals. "These purchases are legal. The French government authorizes, for now, consumers to return five packets of foreign countries. But they are expensive to the state. And we must not delude ourselves. Many do not meet the threshold legal, "says the rapporteur Thierry Lazaro, UMP deputy from the North.
To stop it, Members recommend to first "convergence of prices of tobacco with the neighboring states," including by simplifying tax, but also by setting the initial prices in consultation with the countries concerned.The report also urges governments to implement the price increases coming in a measured and steady in the Cancer Plan 2009-2013. The idea is to avoid sharp rises and irregular.
Finally, against the advice of the Government, Members reiterated the importance of maintaining the limit of purchases of cigarettes abroad in five packages. The European Commission recently sued France to the European Court of Justice to prevent the free movement of goods. It calls for the removal of the threshold of five packets. If France and sentenced, the threshold will be deleted, or it will be fined. "Tobacco is not a commodity like any other. It is harmful and addictive. We must insist and keep this limit. Regardless of the European Commission", insists the rapporteur Jean-Marie Binetruy, UMP Doubs.
Haro on smuggling and the danger of counterfeiting
Smuggling (30%) and Internet purchases (20%), a process banned in France, representing nearly all the rest of the parallel trade. Vendors buy illegal cigarettes at low cost abroad, then sell them in France, in the street or on the Internet for example. The report is also concerned about the increasing number of cigarettes made by manufacturers in countries neighboring the EU that do not meet its standards, but also end on the French market. "Smuggling is dangerous for the economy but also for health. There are many counterfeit, especially from Eastern Europe. These cigarettes often contain anything," warned Thierry Lazaro.
The report calls for the launch of an information campaign about the dangers of counterfeiting, backed by the government and tobacconists.Should then increase the traceability of packets to trace the supply chains and where cigarettes are manufactured. MEPs recommend, finally, hardening and improving the judicial arsenal, for the training of magistrates instructions and rulings, as well as the ability to give justice to disable a suspect website time to investigation.
Shaken by a drop in subscriptions, the magazine of the National Institute of consumption could increase in the private sector, the risk that its credibility challenged.
While its competitor, the UFC-Que Choisir a hit, the magazine "60 million consumers" has seen its sales plummet by 22% between 2008 and 2011, according to an audit of the accounting firm of MBV & Associates, commissioned by the National Consumer Institute (INC), owner of the title. The erosion is partly due to the termination of a policy of recruiting new subscribers in recent years. Now, to return to profitability, the magazine should flow to 200,000 copies, twice today.result, the UFC-Que Choisir has 420,000 subscribers to 30 million euros in revenue and 60 million consumers of only 100,000 subscribers to 10 million euros.
For MVB & Associates, a status quo would lead to accumulated losses of € 4 million over the next three years, involving the continuity of the title. Conclusion of the firm: the magazine must be backed by the private sector, the only way to inject € 18.5 million for its re-floated. For now, while the parliament is considering a draft law on consumer rights, no decision has been taken and two scenarios are being studied in INC.
Two scenarios under consideration
"Either we are content to mobilize internal resources at the institute who are not fertile and we made a small raise of the subscription.However this can not go very far, "said Francis Amand, president of the board." Either we have a more ambitious recovery and growth capacity, requiring more funding that could come only from a private operator, "he added. A decision could be taken at a board of directors of the INC on 9 November.
The scenario of backing caused an outcry among staff and among some readers, who fear for the independence of the magazine. "Regulators want to get rid of the newspaper." 60 million "can not keep its identity and mission of public service outside of the INC," said Lionel Maugain, staff representative on the board. A support committee was set up by readers and journalists to oppose any backing to the private sector.Thursday, nearly 7,000 people had signed.
"It is difficult to an investor put money in a way that could not provide a lot of sales because the potential reader would think that this title is biased," assured Francis Amand. A charter could also be signed to ensure editorial independence, he said.
"60 million" was founded in 1970 by the INC, who realized that TV shows were not enough to inform the consumer. nitially released under the name "50 million consumers," the magazine is primarily known for its main comparative tests on the appliances. Then he is getting stronger with campaigns that make loud noise on the soaring prices and declining purchasing power, or on the Harms dyes, abuse of trustees and breathalyzers unreliable.A score of journalists working for the magazine, working closely with engineers, lawyers and economists INC.
Wall Street opened down sharply Thursday, continuing its decline started the day after the grim diagnosis of the Federal Reserve on the U.S. economy, plus a further contraction in activity in the eurozone and in China revives fears a second global recession in four years.
In early trade, the Dow Jones lost 2.6% (292 points) at 10,832 points.The Standard & Poor's, wider, yielding 2.42% (28 points) to 1138 points, while the Nasdaq composite fell by 2.5% (63 points) to 2474 points.
After ten minutes of trading, the Dow's losses widened and lost 3%.
The weekly jobless claims declined in the United States during the week to Sept. 17, at 423,000 against 432,000 the previous week, but they emerged above the consensus (420 000), which does not appease the spirits.
The Fed on Wednesday raised "significant downside risks" on the economy of the United States, before announcing an "Operation Twist" 400 billion dollars to bring down long rates, and support activity.
But Wall Street estimates that only 15% chance that the "Operation Twist" gives a real boost to the U.S. economy, according to a Reuters poll of primary dealers of Treasury.
Fears of a relapse of the global economy have intensified Thursday with the contraction in private sector activity observed in the eurozone and China.
The banking sector also sensitive to economic conditions, still suffers from the decision of Moody's downgrade of Bank of America (-4.4%), Wells Fargo (-2.7%) and Citigroup (-3.9%) on the ground the U.S. federal government may be reluctant to rush to the aid of large banking institutions in difficulty.
United Technologies lost 6.6% after announcing the acquisition of the aerospace supplier Goodrich, whose work jumped 9.8%, an operation that would be the largest acquisition of U.S. industrial giant in 10 years.
A sale of the Company in general management company Amundi is strategically the most sense among the options available to the French banking group to improve its financial situation, say analysts and fund managers polled by Reuters.
The French bank, already forced to leave in early August its financial targets for 2012, said Monday that it would proceed with asset sales and cost reductions to free up four billion euros in additional capital by 2013. CEO Frederic Oudéa said the sale will take place in the asset management, investor services and financial services.
"The bank is in a very bad happening today.She has no choice, she will have to sell the family jewels to pay off debt and improve its capital position, "said Fabrice Cousté, CEO of CMC Markets.
The managers believe that, already in asset management with Lyxor, the Company generally does not need to be also through CAAM, its joint venture with Credit Agricole in which it holds 25%.
Especially since Lyxor Amundi competition and the 'green banking', which holds the remaining 75% of Amundi could enjoy being sole master on board.
"PILL ANTI-TAKEOVER"
"Strategically, Lyxor is closer to core business (investment banking, network, etc.) of the Company qu'Amundi general," notes Frédéric Jamet, Director of Management at State Street Global Advisors France.
"Amundi had a strategic interest in Societe Generale as pill anti-takeover, but now it is not the issue.A rational, logical, would be to focus on activities identified clear and validating the strategic refocusing of the bank, "he adds.
Analysts estimate that as other European banks, Societe Generale is underfunded and needs to raise new funds, while its capital adequacy ratio "hard" (core Tier 1) stood at 6.6% in Scenario macroeconomic worst in recent bank stress tests conducted in Europe, the lowest of French banks.
"Banks need to raise more capital to avoid bankruptcy, especially if exposure to Greece continues to affect markets. A core Tier 1 ratio between 3% and 5% is too low, it must be significantly higher .From 8% this ratio begins to be sufficient, "said Stefan Isaacs, bond manager at M & G Investments.
Another track planned by Fabrice Cousté, SocGen could give Boursorama, which it owns 55% according to Reuters data. Boursorama is valued around 560 million euros in stock, or about 5% of the capitalization of the Company generally.
No one was immediately available at Societe Generale and Credit Agricole declined to comment.
Job creation in the private sector in the United States were below expectations in August, according to the results of the monthly ADP released Wednesday.
It was created 91,000 jobs in August, while the market was expecting 100,000.
The number of jobs created in July was revised down to 109,000, against 114,000 in the first estimate.
ADP Employer Services survey, conducted in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, is considered a leading indicator of monthly statistics on employment figures which are expected on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters anticipate 75,000 new posts in the private and the public, but outside the agricultural sector after 117,000 in July.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended up 0.29% Friday, purchasing cheap market conservative who supported a highly anticipated speech before the President of the Federal Reserve.
The Nikkei gained 25.42 points to 8797.78 points and the Topix, broader took 4.25 points (0.57%) to 756.07 points.
Ben Bernanke is speaking from 14:00 GMT to Jackson Hole (Wyoming), a speech that investors around the world hope to gain clues about the Fed's intentions concerning the U.S. economy.
Hope to see Ben Bernanke announced a new plan to support the economy supported the equity markets early in the week, but this enthusiasm has been tempered somewhat.
"The Index (Nikkei) remains below 9.000 points, and is the level where investors buy stocks with attractive valuations, "said Hideyuki Okoshi, director of Chibagin Securities.
On small volumes, some values abused since the beginning of the month and have found favor with investors.
Elpida, the third manufacturer of DRAM, in particular, jumped 17.58% to 535 yen after losing up to 40% in one month due to the capital increase announced by the group.
The French president in whirlwind visit to Beijing to prepare for the next G20, estimates that China has "a major role" in reviving global growth. "We need the G20 summit (…) make decisions and take part in the revival of global growth. This is a major issue and China has a key role," said Nicolas Sarkozy.
The next G20 summit in Cannes will "decide" to revive the global economy, China is playing a "major role" in the process, said Thursday in Beijing Nicolas Sarkozy. The French president was greeted by his counterpart Hu Jintao at the Palace of the people of Beijing, Tiananmen Square, for a whirlwind tour of about five hours, with talks on Libya and sovereign debt crisis, and a dinner working with the Chinese president.
"As chair of the G20, I could not imagine not coming to China to talk with my Chinese friends of the great economic issues of concern to the world," said the head of the French state. "We need the G20 summit (…) make decisions and take part in the revival of global growth. This is a major issue and China has a key role," he added, to sides of the Minister of Finance Baroin came just prepare for this appointment.
The next summit of the G20 (group of rich countries and major emerging markets, currently chaired by Paris) will be held in Cannes (south-eastern France) on November 3 and 4. "That France and China strengthen their dialogue is of great importance for the success of the summit in Cannes, for strengthening international economic cooperation and to promote recovery and healthy development of the global economy," said Hu Jintao.
Paris and Beijing in phase of the post-Qadhafi
Nicolas Sarkozy is located in Beijing while the fall of the regime in Libya is not complete: the remaining pockets of resistance in Tripoli after the entry of rebel and Colonel Qaddafi is not found. But after being in Paris on Wednesday the number two of the rebellion Libya, Mahmoud Jibril, Sarkozy has proposed a conference of "Friends of Libya" on 1 September in Paris, which would go beyond the mere contact group and include the major emerging economies such as China. If China was hostile to the coalition strikes against Libya, it is however in line with Paris on the post-Qadhafi since Beijing also wants to see the UN play a "leading role" in Libya.
But the official newspaper China Daily Thursday gave a somewhat optimistic vision of the post-Gaddafi, saying "inevitable chaos and conflict emerge as the various opposition factions will fight for the political leadership." "China must maintain contact with all parties," added the newspaper.
The presidents Sarkozy and Hu should also talk about the problem of sovereign debt in Europe that undermine stock markets. The Global Times said Thursday in its Chinese version that Sarkozy "has just (in Beijing) first to get the continued support of China on the resolution of sovereign debt crisis in Europe." Considering that "26% of foreign exchange reserves of China are in euros," Ding Chun, professor at the Center for Research on Europe at the University of Fudan, Shanghai, called in the official newspaper of Europe to put the finances in order.
"The EU and Sarkozy have, while calling on China to take more responsibility in maintaining the stability of the global economy, making a decisive and courageous sacrifices (…) that developed countries must to face global challenges. " After a press statement, Mr Sarkozy will resume early in the evening fly to New Caledonia where it is to open Saturday the fourteenth game of the Pacific.