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Poul Thomsen, the head of IMF mission in Greece, will have to recognize that slow the pace of fiscal consolidation since the recession is more severe than expected. The head of IMF mission to monitor the recovery of Greek finances, Poul Thomsen (here in Athens November 19, 2011) The head of IMF mission to monitor the recovery of Greek finances, Poul Thomsen, acknowledged errors in the control of the country for two years and called for fewer budget cuts and further liberalization, in an interview published Wednesday. "The budgetary adjustment was based on an exaggerated tax increases, we should have put more emphasis on cost containment is the one area where we could have been more convincing to the government "said the IMF representative, when asked about possible errors of the IMF by the Greek daily Khatimerini." Although much remains to be done, Greece has made good progress, "he said, claiming to understand the discomfort of the Greek opinion against criticism blaming the downturn on the country or accusing him of being unable to recover. "We should be more careful to ensure that we send a balanced message when we say that the program is off the rails," he said. But "reform and the effort required (…) have lost their momentum, we must find her," he ajouté.Poul Thomsen was recognized "worried" at the worsening of the recession-induced these measures. "We need to slow down the pace of fiscal consolidation and advance much faster in the implementation of reforms." He reiterated that among them, he supported measures to wage cuts in the private sector, as expected IMF boost the economy via a gain in competitiveness, but rejected by the Greeks as being at risk of stopping further consumption and activity. Poul Thomsen in particular called for a reduction in the minimum wage, red rag to the unions, stating that 'to 751 euros gross per month was 35% higher than that of Portugal, and from 20% to that of Spain. Despite reservations Greek on these requirements, he found that the negotiations that led to the side its counterparts Commission and European Central Bank with the government to complete the new plan for the country's recovery will be concluded "very shortly, within a few days."Target these days of sharp attacks in the Greek press as too inflexible and challenged him as in the IMF because of the failures encountered by the first bailout of Greece, Mr. Thomsen also emphasized working in full agreement with colleagues at the IMF.

Airbus anticipates a decline in orders in 2012 compared to 2011, the success of the A320neo, announces CEO Thomas Enders.

"There will not be the same kind of firework of new orders in 2012 as there has been this year," said Tom Enders daily Börsen-Zeitung, in an interview published Thursday.

Despite expectations of a recession, the two major aircraft manufacturers worldwide have accumulated very large orders this year after deciding to upgrade their best-selling models, namely the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, by equipping them with new engines capable save 12% to 15% fuel.

Airbus, a subsidiary of EADS, is leading the race by promising that the A320neo would be available by 2015.It has sold more than 1,000.

The manufacturer plans to increase its production rate to 44 A320s per month. He must make a decision soon.

But first we must weigh what is happening economically, said Thomas Enders at Börsen Zeitung.

"But the airline demand is there, and for the second half of the decade, when the" neo "released in 2015, a further increase of production is quite possible," he adds.

The boss of Airbus also points out that in the tough current economic climate, some suppliers of small and medium sized have difficulty obtaining financing and banks are reluctant to finance aircraft construction.

"We must find new sources of funding.

The new Italian Prime Minister presented his austerity plan to rescue the country from the grip of the market. Mario Monti – who is also Minister of Economy – promised to keep the accounts of Italy, while stimulating growth for the time being very sluggish. Mario Monti.

The new Prime Minister Mario Monti on Thursday presented a very ambitious program of austerity and recovery to restore "credibility" of Italy and help save the euro in a European Union through its worst crisis of the post the war. "Discipline, Growth and Equity" are the great watchwords of Mr Monti, which was the first speech programs before the Upper House of Parliament before it obtains in the late evening with confidence 281 votes support of 307. The vote of confidence of the members are expected Friday and should get on this occasion also an overwhelming majority.

European markets opened up after the appointment of Mario Monti to form the new Italian government and the cabinet formation Papademos in Greece, which offers fresh hope for a gradual improvement on the forehead of the debt crisis in the area euro.

The government of technocrats being developed in Rome and the national unity cabinet was sworn in Athens are expected to regain some confidence to investors.

"The fact that Italy and Greece have avoided the political vacuum is a good thing. The question is whether the governments of national unity will work", says Katsunori Kitakura of Chuo Mitsui Trust Bank in Tokyo.

The Eurostoxx 50 0.63% progressed to twenty minutes after the start of trade.In Paris the CAC 40 gained 0.58% to 3167.52 points while the Milan stock exchange rebounded 2.1%.

Among banking stocks exposed to Italy and Greece, Credit Agricole, BNP Paribas and Societe Generale rose 2.25%, respectively, 3.66% and 2.12%. UniCredit took 4.42%.

Caution should however be in order before the first real test that will, in the morning, the award of three billion euros of five-year bonds by the Italian Treasury.

Live: a few hours after the Brussels summit that gave birth to decisions on the rescue of the euro area, L'Expansion. Com offers live to follow the reactions in France and worldwide. Markets, for now, enjoy. The President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso, Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates, the President of the Républilque Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite and Finnish Prime Minister Mari Kiviniemi, at Brussels, 28 in October 2010.

Europe was finally granted for an answer to the crisis in its currency. Among the main decisions taken by EU leaders, the discount of 50% of Greek debt held by private creditors. This represents a total deletion of 100 billion euros of Greek debt, currently at 350 billion euros.

To allow banks to bear these losses, a recapitalization plan of 106 billion euros will be established, which will allow European banks to achieve a capital ratio of 9%.

Finally, the most discussed point dernères this week: capacity to 1,000 billion euros from the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). Two mechanisms will be put in place to achieve this amount. The first is a system of guarantees provided by the fund on the bonds of fragile countries (Greece, Italy, Spain …) purchased by investors, which will restore confidence.

The second, which will host a special fund investments from foreign countries, including China, Brazil or Russia. This fund should be "in close cooperation with the IMF," the text.Here are the reactions to the EU summit.

9:51: China welcomes the "European Consensus" should "support market confidence" and breathe "new vitality" to European integration as a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Beijing should be involved in the rescue of the euro via the mechanism of strengthening the EFSF. China already holds $ 500 billion European bond analysts said. It has 3200 billion in foreign reserves. Russia – which could also help Europe – show for its "cautious optimism"

9:49: The British Finance Minister George Osborne welcomed the "very good progress" in the euro area, on the airwaves of BBC Radio. He now asks that the European leaders set out the "details".Britain was illustrated last week by demanding to be further consulted on decisions affecting the euro area.

9:31: Daniel Cohn-Bendit called the agreement a "small step". He finds that the eurozone is the book "bound hand and foot to emerging countries" and especially to China. "You can not discuss a protection against social and environmental globalization and ask those with whom you negotiate this coverage to pay for your crisis". It is "a bad solution, politically dangerous," said co-chair of the Greens in the European Parliament.

9:26: BNP Paribas ensures it will be able to reach the minimum capital ratio "hard" of 9% set by the European regulator at the end of June without raising funds on markets

9:15: The World Bank President Robert Zoellick speaks "a milestone" that will "save time"."I hope that this important first step will lead to a broader approach to help the world economy to resume growth," said the president of the World Bank.

9:00: European stocks up sharply

Paris opens up sharply from 2.43% to 3246 points and takes more than 4% in early trade. The Dax gained 3.43%, 1.72% London, Milan 2.7%, 3% and Madrid. The Athens Stock Exchange is 4.9% Bank stocks soar despite the need to give up 50% of their claims on Greece. Societe Generale climbed 13.5%, 12.8% of Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas of 12.7%. In Germany, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank takes nearly 9% to 7%."These measures could mark convincing the prelude to a rebound in banking stocks in particular French and overly abused since August 2011," strategists believe Credit Mutuel-CIC in a note.

8:27: The agreement reached in the night saved the single currency, according to Economy Minister Baroin interviewed on RTL. "The agreement is a response that night ambitious, comprehensive and credible," said the minister. "That's what will solve the case, that's what we come out of the turbulence, that is what will the economic rebound, that's what will stabilize the euro area and global growth", at he said.

8:19: Alain Minc, an economist and close to Nicolas Sarkozy said on Canal + in Brussels that the agreement "should calm the markets." Moreover, the Economist sent a picnic to the Prime Minister of the second country that threatens to pitch after Greece and Italy."The day falls Berlusconi – which will eventually happen – there is no problem because Italian is a wildly emotional issue and therefore how we set up even appear to be very important," he analyzed the specialist.

8:18: The Tokyo Stock Exchange ended sharply higher than 2%. Investors welcomed the Europe Agreement against the debt crisis in the eurozone.

8:00: The euro briefly reached $ 1.40 after the summit. This is the first time since Sept. 7 that the European currency reaches that level. The euro also rose to make the Japanese currency.

8:00: Daniel Cohn-Bendit calls for "a federation of the United States of Europe" in an interview with Liberation."Today is the economic war, it is the markets, as immoral war is immoral, we impose that choice: give up and go, or move up a gear towards the federalization," says co-chair of the Greens in the European Parliament.

The French Economic Observatory forecasts growth of 0.8% in France in 2012. Pink is the scenario. The black scenario, if the rigor is increasing: a decline in GDP of 0.5%. View the Ministry of Economy and Finance at Bercy.

Three years after the start of the global crisis, the potential for economic recovery of France will be constrained by budgetary savings plans in the country and its European partners, provides for the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). Research Center of Sciences-Po expects growth of 1.6% in 2011 and 0.8% in 2012, while the government expects 1.75% per year.

"This performance is particulièrment poor and far from the normal path of an economy in crisis," said the OFCE in a study released Friday.The rebound potential perceived by the OFCE correspond to a growth rate of 3.8% per annum in 2011 and 2012, which would make up for five years after the crisis began accumulating the output gap. France, then regain its unemployment rate in 2007.

But two external shocks will affect such a scenario. The first, soaring commodity prices, will result in a resurgence of inflation in France and limit spending. It will cause a slowdown in its trading partners, reducing their demand for French products. This shock will reduce growth by 1.3 percentage points over the period 2011-2012. The second shock is linked to policies of fiscal restraint led by European countries.

A recession is not excluded

"In trying to reduce their deficits early, too quickly and synchronously, the governments of European countries run the risk of a new downturn," said the OFCE. The unemployment rate in France is expected to increase steadily to 9.3% and 9.7% end 2011 end 2012, according to the institute. "The low cost of capital discourages businesses not yet set up costly and risky projects", the study also points out, "the investment should not be in 2011 and 2012 an efficient link to make permanent the rebound in growth. "

The OFCE is also considering "a darker scenario" if the government would take "whatever the cost to meet its budget commitments' (deficit down to 4.5% of GDP in 2012 and 3% in 2013), with a decline of 0.5% of GDP in 2012.If the other major European countries were to adopt the same strategy, the activity would fall by 1.7% and unemployment was close 11%, according to the OFCE.

The budget deficit widened further in Greece in September due to a recession driven by austerity measures, in spite of new tax measures that were supposed to increase revenue.

The budget deficit increased by 15% annually, to 19.16 billion euros over the period from January to September, show statistics from the Ministry of Finance released Wednesday.

In September, Athens increased VAT on catering to 23% and began collecting a special tax of 1% to 5% on gross revenues.

However, tax revenues fell by 4.2% over the nine months January to September, after falling 5.3% over a period of eight months.

The European Central Bank has not changed interest rates on Thursday, the rise in inflation last month having won on expectations of lower rates in response to the deepening crisis in the euro area.

The refinancing rate remains at 1.5%, the deposit facility rate to 0.75% and the marginal lending rate to 2.25%.These rates have not budged since 7 July, when all three were found a quarter of a point.

President Jean-Claude Trichet will give his final at 12:30 GMT news conference before handing over to the end of Mario Draghi.

The markets are wondering if a possible break leave for the ECB to lower rates anyway by the end of the year or if it will announce the resumption of bidding Long.

Sealed by the debt crisis, the decline of financial markets and fears of a global slowdown in activity, the business climate and consumer confidence in France is severely degraded in September, which bodes ill for the changes in investment and consumption.

The INSEE surveys confirm a trend which had already been drafted Thursday early results of monthly surveys of Markit PMI and reinforce the scenario of low growth at best in the second half after the stagnation of spring.

The general index of business climate in France was down eight points to 97 and falls below its historical average of 100.

"The economic climate deteriorates in all sectors except the building," INSEE said in a statement.

In manufacturing, the sector's most closely watched, the decline in the index is six points, to 99, its level of August 2010. The indicator for services for its fall eight points to 95.

Consequence of this strong and widespread decline, the turning point indicator, a barometer of changing trends in the economy, "rocking significantly negative zone," said the National Institute of Statistics.

"It is in three consecutive months of strong decline, it falls below the long-term averages," said Frédérique Cerisier, economist at BNP Paribas."The problem is that when it drops to this speed, we do not know when it will stop!"

The preliminary results of PMI surveys have also revealed Thursday a sharp deterioration in business prospects for the coming months.

And the situation is no better on the consumer side: 80 September, the index of consumer confidence calculated by INSEE fell to its lowest level since February 2009. The details of the survey results including access to pessimism about the standard of living and employment.

"SLOW", "stagnation" or "RECESSION"?

Fell in May in its long-term average, the indicator measuring the decision of households on the evolution of unemployment and relapsed to the level of June 2010.A change of course is not conducive to consumption: the balance of opinion on whether to make major purchases and erase its gains in July and is close to its lowest annual.

Enough to feed the scenario of low growth in the third quarter or fourth.

If the Bank of France is waiting for the moment at least nominal growth of 0.1% of GDP for July-September, economists suggest an even darker scenario.

"It is deteriorating very quickly and give a priori that a year-end close to stagnation," summarizes Frédérique Cerisier, at BNP Paribas."Right now, there is no engine of growth."

Joost Beaumont, ABN Amro, is more pessimistic still "in the end, he says, these surveys show that the economy is now flirting with recession, the euro area as a whole, and they underline once again the need for policymakers to take bold steps to contain the crisis. "

A link between political and economic situation has also highlighted Friday Laurence Parisot, the president of MEDEF.

"We are on the verge of a slowdown if there is no political decisions – at the European level and perhaps even across the G20 – clear, which give direction to economic actors that they are businesses or households, "she said on RMC."Of Staggering Blow Staggering Blow in, we can no longer move, you end up doubting, all collectively."

Greece hopes to conclude an agreement Tuesday with its international donors, so you can receive a new tranche of eight billion euros scheduled for October, told Reuters on Monday a senior Greek finance.

"The climate was better than expected," the official said, referring to a conference held on Monday between the Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and the "troika" (EU, IMF, European Central Bank).

The Ministry of Finance said earlier that this discussion had been "productive and substantial" and that it be repeated Tuesday night.

"We are close to an agreement and we hope to conclude tomorrow.The government will make an announcement likely on Wednesday after the cabinet meeting.We will continue the discussion tomorrow, "the official added.

Without this new tranche of aid, tied to the forefront of international bailout which Greece received last year, the Greek government said it would find itself short of resources in mid-October.

To avoid this, Greece has to reduce its public sector and improve its system of tax collection, consider its international donors.

"The ball is in the Greek camp, the key lies in the implementation of reforms," ​​said Bob Traa, the IMF representative in Greece, at a conference.

These reforms are required to Athens to collect a new tranche of eight billion euros in the first part of its bailout.

According to him, Greece has cut jobs in the public, reduce the salaries and pensions of civil servants and improve its system of tax collection rather than creating new taxes.

Bob Traa was concerned about the lack of public support for the IMF austerity program / EU, while saying that other countries in the euro zone were on the side of Athens, provided that the government showed that he was acting to control its deficits.

FIVE MEASURES

The euro, but Wall Street had cut their losses after an initial source of the Greek Ministry of Finance had said that an agreement was near on aid between Athens and the troika.

Earlier in the day, the euro was down sharply and European shares closed down for fear of a significant failure of Greece.

Greek media have published a list of 15 austerity measures that they believe the troika requires the implementation.They include a new deletion of 20,000 civil service posts, a reduction or a freeze on salaries and pensions of the public service, increasing the tax on heating oil, the closure of public deficit, reducing spending on health and accelerating privatization.

The EC stated that it did not ask to Athens to adopt austerity measures in addition to what has already been agreed in the reform program of government."What is on the table is in full compliance with the agreed objectives," said the spokesperson of the EC Amadeu Altafaj.

Asked whether Greece would receive the next tranche of aid, Venizelos responded to Reuters: "Yes, of course."

Even so, many economists and investors believe that Greece will end up in default on a debt that reached more than 150% of GDP, perhaps a few months.

Venizelos insisted on Sunday that the spending cuts would be the priority of the 2012 budget. He predicted a contraction of GDP higher than expected 5.5% this year.